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Read articleMineral resources are becoming strategic assets of industrial policy even as project economics remain highly exposed to cycles, concentration and capital intensity
We see mining and metals companies balancing strong long-term demand for selected resources with volatile prices, difficult project execution and rising expectations around supply security.
Materials and mining enter September 2026 with critical minerals firmly embedded in energy, technology and national-security agendas. Copper and several other strategic materials benefit from strong structural demand, yet investment remains uneven across commodities and supply chains remain highly concentrated in selected mining and refining jurisdictions. Government support is increasing, but permitting, infrastructure, processing capacity and project economics continue to constrain diversification. The industry therefore faces a difficult portfolio problem: distinguishing resources with durable scarcity and strategic value from commodities where new supply, technology or policy can rapidly change expected returns.
Focus
Critical minerals are becoming an industrial-policy problem as much as a mining one
Copper constraints, concentrated refining and export controls are pushing resource security into national and corporate strategy.
Read nowStrategic Challenges
Who controls the bottleneck after the ore leaves the ground?
The challenge is understanding exposure across refining and processing where concentration can be greater than at the mine itself.
Read nowStrategic Impacts
Processing capacity is becoming as strategic as resource ownership
Supply security increasingly depends on smelting, refining and by-product recovery rather than simply securing additional mineral reserves.
Read nowObserved Patterns
Mining strategies often focus on reserves while underestimating midstream concentration
A diversified mine portfolio can still rely on highly concentrated processing capacity, creating a different form of strategic dependency.
Read nowStrategic Challenges
Who controls the bottleneck after the ore leaves the ground?
The challenge is understanding exposure across refining and processing where concentration can be greater than at the mine itself.
Read nowStrategic Impacts
Processing capacity is becoming as strategic as resource ownership
Supply security increasingly depends on smelting, refining and by-product recovery rather than simply securing additional mineral reserves.
Read nowObserved Patterns
Mining strategies often focus on reserves while underestimating midstream concentration
A diversified mine portfolio can still rely on highly concentrated processing capacity, creating a different form of strategic dependency.
Read nowIndustry Challenge
Mining faces stronger demand signals but harder economics for new supply
Metals and mining companies are seeing stronger strategic demand for copper, lithium, rare earths and other critical materials, but developing new supply remains capital intensive, slow and geopolitically exposed. Permitting, infrastructure, water, energy and community requirements can delay projects for years, while commodity prices remain volatile. The challenge is to distinguish durable scarcity from cyclical price strength and allocate capital accordingly. Producers must improve existing-asset performance while deciding where new mines, processing and partnerships create value.
Future Outlook
Critical minerals will push mining deeper into industrial and national strategy
The future of mining will be shaped not only by commodity economics but by energy security, technology competition and industrial policy. Governments and customers are seeking more diversified supply chains, creating opportunities for new projects outside dominant producing regions. Yet higher costs mean diversification will require long-term contracts, policy support, recycling and technology improvements. Digital operations and autonomous equipment can lift productivity, while better processing and recovery can extend resource value. Winners will combine geological advantage with execution.
Market Outlook
Critical-mineral demand is strong while supply concentration remains a core risk
Critical-mineral markets are firm in 2026, with demand supported by grids, batteries, EVs, AI infrastructure and advanced manufacturing. Prices for several metals and strategic minerals rebounded through 2025 and early 2026, yet investment in critical minerals declined last year and refining remains highly concentrated geographically. Copper retains a particularly strong structural demand outlook, while lithium, cobalt and other battery materials show more differentiated economics. The market therefore combines long-term demand strength with project delays, policy risk and uncertainty.
POV
Owning the resource does not guarantee control of the supply chain
The strategic chokepoint may sit in refining, processing or trade policy rather than beneath the ground.
Read nowOur approach
Assess mineral value from geology through processing, markets and strategic supply-chain position
Our approach� begins with resource quality and traces economics through extraction, processing, refining, logistics and final demand. We compare assets through cost position, reserve life, capital requirements, infrastructure and jurisdiction rather than relying on commodity price assumptions alone. Policy, trade restrictions and processing concentration are incorporated because they increasingly determine strategic value and market access. We then test portfolios under alternative demand, technology and price scenarios to distinguish resources with durable advantage from projects whose economics depend on narrow assumptions about scarcity or government support.
The data and estimates presented are indicative and intended for illustrative purposes. Actual outcomes may vary based on each company’s specific context, market conditions, operating model, implementation choices, and the quality and consistency of execution, including actions undertaken by the client.
Keypillars
Explore the key pillars that define this capability and shape how we create focused, measurable business impact.
Resource economics
Examines ore grades, reserves, production costs, processing, capital intensity, and commodity cycles across mining and materials
Value chain structure
Connects extraction, refining, smelting, processing, logistics, and industrial demand across global materials markets
Strategic transition
Tracks critical-mineral demand, decarbonization, recycling, geopolitics, and resource nationalism reshaping sector economics
Is your business positioned for changing demand, resource constraints and the new economics of critical materials?
Get in touch with our Materials, metals and mining team to address resource, market, operational and investment challenges across the industry.
Get in touchStrategic Framework
Explore our Strategic Framework
Autonomous AI agents are changing how work is executed, enabling adaptive processes that respond intelligently to changing conditions instead of following predefined rules.
Discover our framework01. Map value chain
Assess resources, extraction, processing, refining, trade, customers, infrastructure, and cost curves
06. Track balances
Monitor inventories, capacity, project pipelines, prices, trade, policy, and end-market demand
05. Shape portfolio
Define asset, commodity, project, technology, partnership, and capital-allocation priorities
02. Trace fundamentals
Examine grades, reserves, demand, supply, energy, permitting, geopolitics, technology, and recycling
03. Assess position
Evaluate asset quality, cost position, resource life, product mix, infrastructure, and geographic exposure
04. Model cycles
Test commodity prices, demand, supply, energy, regulation, capital, and transition scenarios
How we help
Support mining and metals companies in allocating capital toward resources and assets with defensible economics and strategic relevance
We help mining and materials businesses assess commodity outlooks, portfolios, assets and growth opportunities through market and resource economics. Support can include project assessment, capital prioritization, geographic and market strategy, portfolio restructuring, operational performance, M&A, critical-mineral positioning and supply-chain resilience. We also help leadership test investments against geopolitical, policy and technology scenarios where the strategic importance of a mineral may rise faster than the underlying project economics can support.
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Mining portfolio strategy
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Mine productivity transformation
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Mining cost transformation
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Ore body value optimization
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Mine planning optimization
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Processing plant optimization
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Mining asset reliability
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Autonomous mining strategy
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Mining digital transformation
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Critical minerals strategy
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Metals market intelligence
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Mine development strategy
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Mining capital allocation
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Mining supply chain resilience
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Mining energy strategy
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Mine decarbonization
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Tailings and waste strategy
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Mine water strategy
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Mining geopolitical exposure
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Metals recycling strategy
Explore our FAQs
Find answers to the most common questions about this service, including key features, processes, and practical considerations. Explore our FAQs for additional insights and guidance.
Ore quality, resource access, energy, capital intensity and commodity cycles shape asset competitiveness and returns.
Test resource quality, cost position, infrastructure and demand across multiple price scenarios before committing long-lived capital.
It increases demand for selected materials while creating uncertainty around technology choices, substitution and future supply.
Resource quality, cost position, jurisdiction, infrastructure and expansion potential matter alongside current commodity prices.
Assess jurisdiction, export policy and infrastructure exposure that could affect production, ownership or access to end markets.
When optionality, strategic resource value or expected market conditions justify retaining capacity despite weaker current economics.
Evaluate energy use, process technology and customer demand for lower-emission materials alongside the cost of transition.
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