Article
The new map of strategic dependencies
How raw materials, supply networks and technology competition are redefining where global enterprises remain exposed.
Test strategy against several plausible global futures before uncertainty is compressed into one planning assumption
We connect geopolitical, economic, technological and regulatory uncertainties to build scenarios that reveal where strategic choices remain robust or fragile.
Long-term strategy often relies on assumptions that appear reasonable precisely because they reflect the present. Yet structural shifts in geopolitics, technology, trade or regulation can change the environment faster than conventional forecasts imply. Scenario planning does not attempt to predict one future. It identifies the uncertainties capable of producing meaningfully different worlds and explores how those worlds would change the conditions under which the enterprise competes. This allows leadership to distinguish choices that remain attractive across futures from decisions dependent on a narrow set of external assumptions.
Focus
Strategic foresight tests decisions against futures that cannot be forecast precisely
The objective is to understand how different external conditions could alter assumptions, exposures and enterprise choices.
Read nowStrategic Challenges
Which futures would force the enterprise to make different strategic choices?
The challenge is building scenarios distinct enough to test decisions without turning uncertainty into speculative storytelling.
Read nowStrategic Impacts
Scenario planning reveals which strategies remain robust across different futures
Testing assumptions against divergent conditions helps leadership identify vulnerabilities, optionality and decision triggers.
Read nowObserved Patterns
Scenario exercises often create narratives without changing any strategic choice
Rich stories add little when scenarios are not connected to investments, thresholds, contingencies or portfolio decisions.
Read nowStrategic Challenges
Which futures would force the enterprise to make different strategic choices?
The challenge is building scenarios distinct enough to test decisions without turning uncertainty into speculative storytelling.
Read nowStrategic Impacts
Scenario planning reveals which strategies remain robust across different futures
Testing assumptions against divergent conditions helps leadership identify vulnerabilities, optionality and decision triggers.
Read nowObserved Patterns
Scenario exercises often create narratives without changing any strategic choice
Rich stories add little when scenarios are not connected to investments, thresholds, contingencies or portfolio decisions.
Read nowPOV
A scenario that changes no decision is just an interesting story
Foresight earns strategic value only when alternative futures expose choices that leadership would otherwise leave untested.
Read nowOur approach
Build scenarios around the uncertainties capable of changing the external conditions under which strategy must perform
Our approach begins by identifying the geopolitical, economic, technological and regulatory uncertainties most capable of altering enterprise outcomes. We separate predetermined structural forces from genuinely uncertain variables and combine them into a limited set of internally coherent global scenarios. Each scenario is translated into implications for markets, supply chains, capital, technology and competition. We then test current strategies and major decisions across those futures, identifying robust choices, fragile assumptions, signposts and contingent moves that should become relevant if the external environment begins moving toward one scenario rather than another.
The data and estimates presented are indicative and intended for illustrative purposes. Actual outcomes may vary based on each company’s specific context, market conditions, operating model, implementation choices, and the quality and consistency of execution, including actions undertaken by the client.
Keypillars
Explore the key pillars that define this capability and shape how we create focused, measurable business impact.
Scenario architecture
Builds plausible alternative futures around critical uncertainties, structural forces, and decision variables relevant to long-term enterprise choices
Strategic testing
Uses scenarios to test assumptions, investments, operating models, and portfolio choices under materially different future conditions
Foresight signals
Identifies emerging indicators and structural changes that may alter the probability, timing, or implications of alternative strategic futures
What decisions would you make differently if today's most important global assumptions stopped holding?
Get in touch with our Global scenario planning and strategic foresight team to explore plausible futures, uncertainties and decision implications.
Get in touchStrategic Framework
Explore our Strategic Framework
Explore our strategic framework applied to page_title and discover which model we apply to help you achieve your goals and objectives.
Discover our framework01. Frame question
Define the strategic decisions, time horizon, scope, and uncertainties that scenarios must illuminate
06. Track signposts
Monitor indicators that reveal which scenario dynamics are strengthening, weakening, or changing direction
05. Define options
Identify robust actions, contingent moves, trigger points, and choices that preserve strategic flexibility
02. Identify forces
Map structural trends, emerging signals, actors, dependencies, and uncertainties capable of reshaping the environment
03. Build scenarios
Construct distinct, plausible futures around critical uncertainties and internally consistent causal pathways
04. Test strategy
Examine how current assumptions, investments, capabilities, and strategic choices perform across alternative futures
How we help
Build plausible global scenarios that expose which strategic assumptions remain robust and which depend on one external future
We provide global scenario planning and strategic foresight across geopolitical, economic, technological and regulatory uncertainty. The work can include uncertainty mapping, scenario construction, signposts, strategic stress testing and contingent decision frameworks. Outputs create a limited set of coherent futures, show how enterprise choices perform under each, identify assumptions most sensitive to external change and clarify which options, investments or capabilities should be preserved because they remain valuable across several plausible trajectories.
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Global scenario planning
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Strategic foresight assessment
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Critical uncertainty analysis
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Driving forces analysis
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Weak signal detection
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Strategic horizon scanning
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Long-range scenario development
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Scenario implication analysis
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Scenario stress testing
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Strategic option testing
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Signpost framework design
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Scenario trigger monitoring
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Backcasting analysis
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Strategic resilience assessment
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Foresight integration into planning
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Executive foresight workshops
Explore our FAQs
Find answers to the most common questions about this service, including key features, processes, and practical considerations. Explore our FAQs for additional insights and guidance.
It tests strategy against multiple plausible futures where geopolitical, economic and technological conditions may evolve differently.
Use enough to capture materially different futures without creating a set so broad that implications and decisions become indistinct.
Forecasts estimate likely outcomes; scenarios explore distinct plausible conditions and their implications without assigning false precision.
It should challenge important assumptions and reveal choices, vulnerabilities or options that differ meaningfully across futures.
Use them as evidence of possible change, while distinguishing early indicators from established trends and testing alternative interpretations.
Refresh them when major events or structural trends materially change the drivers, uncertainties or assumptions on which they were built.
Use scenarios to identify robust actions and contingent options rather than treating every adverse future as equally probable.
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Editorial overview
Articles
Scenario planning for a less predictable global economy
How leaders can use strategic foresight to test market, footprint and investment choices against multiple plausible futures.
Read articleBuilding an early-warning system for global volatility
How companies can connect macroeconomic, geopolitical and market signals to identify emerging shocks before they reshape enterprise decisions.
Read articleFocus
Energy and commodity intelligence matters where price and supply shocks reshape economics
Markets can shift quickly through conflict, policy, weather, logistics and production decisions across concentrated supply systems.
Geopolitical risk matters through the enterprise exposures it can activate
External events become material when they affect markets, assets, suppliers, financing, people or strategic freedom.
Strategic challenges
Which hidden dependencies could disrupt multiple suppliers at once?
The challenge is identifying common nodes and sub-tier concentrations that conventional supplier mapping fails to reveal.
Which material dependencies could become strategic bottlenecks for the business?
The challenge is identifying where concentration, substitution limits and geopolitical control create hidden exposure.