Scenario planning for a less predictable global economy
How leaders can use strategic foresight to test market, footprint and investment choices against multiple plausible futures.
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Global strategic intelligence
Integrate global signals, scenarios and intelligence to support strategic decisions across markets and industries.
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Articles
The new map of strategic dependencies
How raw materials, supply networks and technology competition are redefining where global enterprises remain exposed.
Read articleFocus
Critical materials matter where supply concentration can constrain enterprise choices
Availability, processing capacity and sovereign control can reshape cost, continuity and strategic dependence.
Strategic foresight tests decisions against futures that cannot be forecast precisely
The objective is to understand how different external conditions could alter assumptions, exposures and enterprise choices.
Strategic challenges
Which country signals deserve attention before they become business constraints?
The challenge is separating structural deterioration from short-term noise across markets with very different risk profiles.
Where are regulatory regimes becoming strategically incompatible?
The challenge is identifying divergence that changes product, data, investment or operating choices across jurisdictions.
POV
A scenario that changes no decision is just an interesting story
Foresight earns strategic value only when alternative futures expose choices that leadership would otherwise leave untested.
Industrial policy can change an industry's economics without changing customer demand
State intervention may redefine cost curves, capacity and competitive advantage before market fundamentals visibly move.
Strategic impact
Scenario planning reveals which strategies remain robust across different futures
Testing assumptions against divergent conditions helps leadership identify vulnerabilities, optionality and decision triggers.
Geoeconomic intelligence clarifies where trade exposure could alter competitiveness
Tracking policy and flow changes helps management assess implications for sourcing, pricing, investment and market access.
What we observe
Companies often treat industrial policy as a funding opportunity rather than a market force
Subsidies can change capacity, pricing and competition even for businesses that never receive direct government support.
Companies often track commodity prices while ignoring structural supply concentration
Price stability can conceal geopolitical or processing dependencies that become visible only when access is disrupted.